Alan Ng’s personal blog

Traces the sequencing constraint behind Trump's 2026 midterm strategy, a five-month chain from Iran deal to oil transmission to CPI to Fed rate cuts, where no step can be skipped or reordered. Warsh is the harvester waiting on conditions Trump must first create; Taiwan is the unstated cost accumulating beneath the entire script.

This essay looks at a possible Warsh-led Fed as a policy-balance problem rather than a simple hawkish or dovish shift. With Trump pushing for rate cuts, bond markets demanding credibility, and the Fed needing to protect its independence, the key question is not only whether rates fall, but how much of that easing may be offset through balance-sheet restraint.

This essay looks at the 2026 Middle East war as an energy crisis as much as a military conflict. With Hormuz at risk, oil prices spiking, emergency reserves being released, and major powers facing very different incentives, the key question is not only who is winning on the ground, but how long the world can absorb the energy shock.